The sum of my worst fears

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As the Hurricane season refused to ramp up, readers here recall this blog:

The blog dissected the reasons (which because I had been wrong to that point, I call excuses). but then USED THAT TO GO FORWARD TO EXPLAIN AN ACTIVE END GAME TO THE HURRICANE SEASON AND THE COLD START TO THE WINTER. The method for actually is from mid-November on. We had one major cold thrust in the middle of November but now what is coming is more like the Northern Hemispheric attack on the big 3 energy demanding areas that I feared would happen

The people pushing the climate agenda will say the warming and blocking is from climate change so the cold is because it’s getting warmer over the arctic. Since half of the analog years used were from before the time and in fact look closer to what is going on, that is a lot of hooey from people who only weaponize weather for their phony climate war. They have put Europe, and the US in peril because of their policies, and when the cold comes, they are going to blame the warmth for the cold. It is how their twisted argument works.

It is true that blocking over the pole leads to the threat of the extreme cold event underneath. But they expose their ignorance or deception linking a pattern that is known to anyone forecasting weather the last 60 years ( even longer) to their phony climate war missive.

First of all the Decembers in the past 11 years on average,


so a cold US December would stick out like a sore thumb, upping the ante on energy

Europe is in the same boat the last 11 years


As a side note, this shows you why people dismissing the medieval warm period as being regionalized don’t know what they are talking about. If you forecast globally you understand the action and reaction of the atmosphere will produce similar results in areas linked by what we call teleconnections. You don’t get it warm in Europe and not have it warm in other places. It is tough enough to do that for a week, but over the period of decades, the atmosphere does not work that way. If the people pushing that ACTUALLY FORECASTED THE WEATHER, they would understand that it could NOT have occurred independently of other warm places on the planet

But look at the analog years I chose back at the end of August to give people an up on the threat of early old, something we have not seen in December overall the past decade The years selected came up with the idea there would be blocking for the early winter


Low and behold the modeling has it


and the results can be seen in temperature forecasts for the US and Europe! from Dec 5 likely thru the 20th

image.gif image.gif

for the US I expect the week following ( Dec 13-19) to be as cold or colder

In the face of the warm Decembers, and models from 3 weeks ago. So again a cold December would be a big deal even if we did not have an energy problem


it would appear a 90-day analog forecast beats a 3-week, billions of dollars to develop, model

The cold ante is upped because of the policies of this administration.

1) Their actions discouraged fossil fuel energy companies from continuing Trump era business strategy

2) The Biden administration turns around and blames the evil fossil fuel companies, knowing full well the average brainwashed climate change advocate has no idea about supply and demand and overall market attitude

3) This drove the price up and was a double whammy 1) it made Putin ( the guy who Biden, Clinton, and Obama all thought was no threat back in 2012) Rich enough to launch his attack, just like did in Georgia and Crimea when oil spiked.

4) By allowing the pipeline in Europe ( if Vlad was such a big threat, why would you do that) He drove up European dependency, exactly what Reagan did first and then Trump later ( and he was laughed at by the Germans where the coming cold will be vicious) warned about

5) He drains our strategic supply to try to keep prices down. Now we find Diesel is in short order. We are SHIPPING LNG. to Europe to cover for them. What happens when we need it? You are already seeing the talk of blackouts. These can be played squarely at the feet of almost incomprehensible policies to fight a phony climate war

6) world energy prices skyrocket so inflation became a worldwide problem. Bad enough you printed money like we were playing monopoly, you then did unleashed a war on energy

7) You made us dependent. So now we are begging other countries to help us out. We could have taken care of any cold shot, and helped others more if we had the policies we had before this administration came to town fanatically bent on using climate to drive the nation into an abyss

8) Biden’s advocacy of solar panels does not mention where the material comes from. Same with turbines. Advocacy for anything electric does not account for an inconvenient fact. There is no way that alternative energy can power the grid. Nuclear and natural gas are very clean, yet they are frowned upon. As for the EVS, there is a finite amount of material, and most of it comes from other areas of the world, which forces dependency on us, to create them. Can you imagine the demand on the grid?

You can add to this because I am sure there is more, But we should never be in this position

And lurking is the threat of a “dam burst” of cold air for Dec 10-20. The pattern is not unlike Dec 1983 or Feb 2021 in the set up.

I will use 2021 since we hit that 10 days and showed you here, and you can remember it

At 500 MB the block is over the top of a trough in western North America and cold is pouring into the west and plains but being held off in the south and east


So the pattern that develops by Dec 7

is simllar


The big high stick its nose into the plains, the cold starts south

image.gif image.gif

notice Europe too

2 days later, the dam breaks. This drives south and east and engulfs the nation


. So look what happened in 2021


1983 example


So that is on the table. It’s going to get cold and that is a big problem. The major shot in mid-November was not seen as models had the month warm.

So a bigger drain on energy started early. Another 10-15 day severe cold shot, this time including Europe may mean the holiday season is not filled with comfort and joy but misery and distress

And there is no excuse for us not having the ability to counter winter cold

  • Joe Bastardi

    Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here.

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