Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold


I want to address my public stance on the Texas situation in the run up to the storm. The great thing about twitter is that you can also keep a record of tweets that showed what you said that can help you, as well as the usual one that your foes use to slam you. The reason I am writing this is inherent in why I love blogging for CFACT. It gives me a place to have an outlet on things that seem to be shut down or ignored in other circles unless some kind of agenda is pushed. I wrote 2 books on the matter of climate I have nothing else to add. This argument is a phony screen for other things, and since those other things do not involve climate and weather, it is now in the domain of the circus that is known as agenda driven politics. I do grieve for the loss of the purity of what I have loved all my life, but it is what it is. I can not believe they have dragged something as pure as the weather and climate into the cesspool of agenda driven zealotry. But that is what has happened.

The small storm that has been brewed up for me in the wake of the “lets hammer Ted Cruz for him going to Cancun”, began developing after Sean Hannity and the senator revealed that I added value to helping out in talking to the governor. Remember I talked to the governor Friday night but said nothing about it publicly. I did not want to seem like a suck up and name dropper, though I did tell some of my friends. Some 10 days later, I did mention it on the Glenn Beck show. And once that happened, demands started as to why the governor would dare consult someone from the private sector. Well ponder this. Since as you will see below we pulled no punches from WEDNESDAY, why didn’t someone in “official” capacity in higher places call not only the governor, BUT THE PRESIDENT to advocate for some of the measures that could have mitigated this (,my suggestion was a massive winter response of prepositioning of supplies and snowfighting equipment, and that started on Wednesday). By Saturday its too late for that kind of safety net response. And saying it was going to get cold from 10 days out doesn’t compare to saying 1899 is coming from 5 days out. If you thought an outbreak of that magnitude was on the way, then why not get in touch with people that are in power? Certainly people that are in “atmospheric authoritative” positions that have access to people in high places, could have got on the phone and said, what I was saying, not from Saturday, but from Wednesday. (For the record there are no authorities on the atmosphere, there are just men trying to keep up and adapt to an infinite system. Preparation in front, which is what my company does can help out but you will never avoid completely what nature can do, and with more people and infrastructure in the way, there is going to be more damage.) I seek no fight, quite the opposite, I want to be involved even behind the scenes without glory to Joe. My lack of comments on this matter for over a week show that. But if attacked I will defend if the truth is on my side. And no amount of leftist spinning can take away the true intent and commitment in my heart to help out people with the talent God gave me. But the glory of CFACT is they still believe in freedom of thought and so here is the chronology of my public tweets.

But here are the tweets

The first set is from Feb 10th, that is Wednesday. Keep in mind the run up to this started on our site, Weatherbell.com premium and for our clients earlier than this.

Feb 10

“… in terms of extremes meteorologically. this is the winter equal to a cat 5 hurricane hit in the hurricane season for Texas and the deep south.”

Feb 10.

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold

This was to show, that as in many of the situations in Texas where the east is very cold and windy, the ridge line of the arctic high is back over west Texas so you would have had a problem anyway on a couple of nights even if there was no freeze up of the turbines.

Feb 10

“The State of Texas is going to be tested on so many levels, I hope gvt and EMA is ready. There will be little wind in west Texas while the core of the cold which may drive temperatures to 0 in Austin, single digits IAH/SAT teens valley hit after major snow/ice storm.”

Again, notice the attention to lack of wind and the calling for government agencies to get ready. This is WEDNESDAY. Not Saturday or Sunday

Feb 10

“This is as close to the Feb 1899 outbreak as I have ever seen as that had a lot of snow also. 1983 and 1985. had less. This is by far the coldest this century. Humanitarian interests with immigration plus blackouts in extreme cold big concern, at least to me”

While the other 2 years were extreme, when one mentions 1899 as far as arctic outbreaks, you are mentioning arguably, the worst arctic outbreak into Texas since anyone settled there. You are drawing attention not to yourself, but the magnitude of the disaster that is coming, given there are now 26 million people in Texas. Notice the comment about humanitarian needs.

Feb 10

“Models never catch the cold into the LRGV. temps could reach 16-20 there with this outbreak, Citrus may be in big jeopardy”

Citrus caught my eye too, given my experience working the radio and TV stations down there.

( I actually was too cold by a few degrees)

Feb 10

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 1

Feb 10

A great forecast that the usual suspects would then blame climate change, and of course they did. And a shout out to another meteorologist who like me is an old Kennedy democrat that cares about people, the humanitarian aspect of this given our immigration situation, Remember Carrizo Springs, where kids are being housed, is in Texas.

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 2

Again another reference to 1899. Takes a complete weather nut to go pull out maps of 1899 but because I live on the site with all these maps, when models show it, I know where to find it and when it occurred. Nothing we see now has not occurred before, or at least close enough where you can’t find the example if you have spent many hours studying the past.

Feb 11 tweets

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 3

This is part of the problem before the coldest 5 days. If you are basing energy consumption forecasts on models only and are preloading in numbers, you are constantly underdone and that is adding up. You have to be able to tell the company to override the preloads and load in lower temperatures. That’s what we do for clients. Models are great tools, but they are NOT the answer. They are tools to get the answer. One should never outsource to things that can make one assume or be complacent. And the forecast you always have to be most skeptical of: YOUR OWN.

·

Feb 11

They occupied public with impeachment 1, while Cloud of Covid was growing. Now its with weather, as Texas situation is evolving, Its like 5 days before Harvey, but at least that was the eclipse that was distracting media.”

Very disturbing, Tho Covid is a longer lasting event, impeachment proceedings had to take away attention from both.

·

Feb 11

The Turbines in West Texas are not winterized like further north so any frozen precip causes huge problems. An unconstitutional impeachment is stopping focus on what may be a disaster for one of the largest states in the country. And then they will blame climate

Quite frankly one of the best non weather forecasts I have ever made. 1) Turbines freezing implication 2). No focus on disaster. 3) Inevitable blame on climate change

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 4

This was a warning shot, but occurred when modeling had warmer temperatures forecasted also in the run up. But outlined the lack of snow and ice fighting equipment in this part of Texas.

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 5

Again from 4 days out, me saying it’s a historic event. And bringing up the environmental impacts that I am sure occurred, but no one seems to be covering in the wake.

Feb 12

“On Newsmax at 3. I am not going to pull punches on the severity of the southern plains situation.”

They canned me in favor of impeachment coverage So the evolution of getting on air in public was first with Larry the Cable Guy’s weekly roundup, because he has me do the weather on his show for truckers and anyone else that wanted to listen. I always try to joke around with the other people ( and they tell me I am not funny, which by the way I am) but it was 15 minutes of dead serious commentary on the extremity of this matter. That show is taped on Thursday and airs Friday at 10 am. And then Sean Hannity who took the time out from his show which was covering the impeachment, because of his worry on this situation.

Tweet

“Newsmax canned me cause of impeachment. That circus should be suspended till what the south is facing is over IMO. But no matter, Will be on with Sean at. 3:30. Hopefully the message will get around. Tex/Ok/Ark about to experience winter weather history IMO”

Again using word historic. . So that started on Wednesday. This is Friday. Again the question if everyone knew this, why didn’t someone that was in power get to the governor or the president. But by this time, the windows were closing.

Following tweet

“Before major hurricanes we see an army of power trucks heading toward where the hurricanes are going. If it were up to me, there would be snow-fighting equipment heading south toward Texas Ok, Ark as these people could be immobile for days”

I could not believe there was no urgency from people that can co-ordinate this, by this time.

Feb 12

“40 million people are under the gone for a historic week of winter weather that will cause immense hardship and challenges. Where is the news media? Where is the mobilization of gvt? Is anyone even watching this besides some weather people, The potential is staggering”

Backing up what was said on the 10th

“Here is what I want to get across. IN terms of extremity from averages meteorologically, winter weather-wise what is heading for Texas,Ok/Ark is the winter equal of a cat 5 hurricane for hurricane season, It is that off the charts to me ( and to others btw)”

Next tweet

“In Texas ,if you are talking winter, then 1899 is the benchmark, though other great outbreaks occurred in the 80s but not with back to back heavy snow and ice events. In Texas with hurricanes. 1900 and Carla are arguably the benchmarks, Winter wise, this is in that ballpark”

As you can see, the missive started Wednesday and I am doubling down.

Feb 12 Numbers busting again!

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 6

I suspect a couple of things are at play here with this. 1) In the old days, there was a viscous battle between public and private sector. I worked for the largest private weather service in the country and when their CEO was nominated for director of NOAA, he got hammered, so there is still some of that leftover. In any case I admit, I loved competing with the NWS. I loved competing with the guys in my office. Who doesn’t like to compete with the best? But that is long gone. I realized what my dad tried to teach me long ago. Don’t worry about the other guy, worry about the actual challenge. So now my attitude is I simply want to add to what we have today, and feel my company is the great to do so given we are lean machine that are a bunch for weather fanatics from the top down. One of my clients told me we are the best kept secret in weather. But there is room for both. In fact their sites are so good for my research ( Models are models I am talking about things a lot of people don’t look at), I have become dependent on them. There I admitted it. I am not sucking up, I am telling the truth. Many people that criticize don’t know that this agency is the walking definition of what a government safety net should be about. But there is room believe me, for public private co-operation. At least I think that.

2) I don’t want to put NOAA out of business. I am opposite that. I disagree with them on one thing, climate. But I didn’t mouth off and say they weren’t pushing this enough or whatever. I never once made reference to what they were or were not saying. I compete now with the weather, cause competing with anything else is a distraction. So my forecasts are the fruit of my labor, and my concern is in getting out the Weatherbell.com message, which is giving you the WHY BEFORE THE WHAT, not during or after. So that is my mission. And by the way, not everyone in my company agrees with me on climate issues. But we don’t let that get in the way. My goodness, I am publicly out front telling people the hurricane center NEVER HYPES A FORECAST. This idea that they are going to forecast something just to scare people is total poppycock. It does them no good to be wrong, and that office is full of, and I say this in the highest form of praise, fanatics who do anything to be right in their jobs. If you get a forecast from NHC, it is above board, and trying to nail the situation for what it is (Hurricane season is around the corner so I wanted to get that out of the way)

3) Agendas have dragged this into the sewer. Which is why I wrote 2 books, because what I loved dearly has been hijacked by people, and I am not talking about the mets or climate people out there that disagree with me, I am talking about people that have no idea what is going on, then pounce after the fact. I wrote about it earlier here on CFACT.

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4) I don’t care who you are or what you believe. The weather does not discriminate because of agendas. It will do what it does, and knowing what it did before can help you in preparing for it, That is what I do, and all I want to do. So helping with the governor of Texas is an honor. And you know something, If the governor of NJ or Michigan wanted my advice, I would be glad to help them . It’s the way my generation was raised. I would love to be the one “nut cases” given how people think about me on the other side of the issue to give the president a different point of view. Chapter 14 in my book shows and easy way out of this if you truly fear co2 and one of the links has been advocated for years by people on both sides of the climate fence, nuclear power. Say what you want about Bill Clinton, he had Dick Morris.

Tweet on the 13th

“modeling still not initialing cold correctly. The implications are as per a previous blog that there was a pre worst ever build up that was taxing the system”

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 7

Feb 13 tweet

“There were rolling brownouts in the 89 outbreak. Many more people, longer duration severe cold makes me wonder if there is not more with this, Given rural isolation of people, could be very serious”

Feb 13 tweet

“The purpose of gvt is for a safety net. IMO this should be having federal response as if prepping for hurricane, but winter version( should have been getting supplies and snowfighting equip in). But the circus in DC has put focus elsewhere. Texas governor out in front tho”

Worst ever area outline:

Timeline of my warnings on historic Texas cold 8

Finally, on the 14th I tweeted this”

“I see the twitterverse is awakening on the severity of the weather situation. enough said.”

And that is the chronology of my pre worst 5 day period runup. When the event arrives, my real value is done. Everyone is watching the weather channel or whatever. I am never the quarterback that scores a touchdown, just the sloppy fullback that likes to throw blocks. I just don’t want people sitting in the stands telling other people I missed the block when I did not.

As I said, I am not picking a fight with anyone, just defending with the actual statements and dates what was said. I have mixed emotions about this. 1) My father told me if I have to tell someone I am good at something, I can’t be that good at it. So that weighs on me. I know for some people this comes off as pompous but its not Monday morning quarterbacking when you reference what you said before. And I think it is right when I get hammered for helping out someone who reached out to me, to defend that against attacks that somehow think because I don’t work in a set office that is wrong. Again no offense meant, but people in high places, if they knew on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday what was coming could have called all those governors and the president and got the response going. So how is that my fault? Do you think Joe Biden or Greg Abbott or anyone that has their responsibilities is spending 20 hours a day looking at the weather or maps of 1899?

2) I read this every day, from Oswald Chambers

…Another thing that distracts us is our passion for vindication. St. Augustine prayed, “O Lord, deliver me from this lust of always vindicating myself.” Such a need for constant vindication destroys our soul’s faith in God. Don’t say, “I must explain myself,” or, “I must get people to understand.”

And this weighed heavily on me before I wrote this. But I felt I should show what I said, when I said it, and defend someone and myself, who simply were reacting to the problem they were confronted with. As long as I defend with what I know to be true and I put that evidence on for you to see. That somehow in the cesspool of climate zealotry that even that motive has mud thrown on it, speaks volumes as to what this matter is all about.

  • Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com

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